Joe and Rob (ok maybe not Rob) are wrong

Dear Adonis,

via Atlanta United

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I promise I started writing this before Joe Patrick posted this. God put this on my heart before Joe hit submit. Joe and Rob Usry played their hand on social media and I felt obliged to speak on it. The bottom line is I think it would be a *wild* decision to sell Pedro Amador.

If you’ve already read Joe’s thing (you should!) you already know, but let’s recap real quick. A report came through over the weekend that a club in the United Arab Emirates made a $1.4 million offer for Amador.

(NOTE: This isn’t a post about the veracity of this report. It’s a nerdy, inconsequential roster-building discussion. Welcome to Five Stripe Final.)

I get the instinct to jump at this. Atlanta acquired Amador on a free transfer. $1.4 million is more than zero. I’m going to be blunt here though: Why the hell would Atlanta United need $1.4 million?

Look, the conservative estimate on the yearly cost to run Arthur Blank’s yacht, “The DreAMBoat”, is $15 million. That’s $41,095.89 a day. $1.4 million is about a month worth of yacht upkeep…

…Ok, fine, to be fair (and to break kayfabe), Atlanta can in fact convert that $1.4 million into General Allocation Money. The transfer fee wouldn’t just go into Blank’s couch cushions. That’s a notable haul. Nearly half of the $3 million in GAM you can generate via transfer fees per season.

Still, it would be one thing if a team swooped in with a $1.4 million offer for a bad soccer player. That’s a bailout. You take those. Amador, bucking a trend prevalent among 2025 Atlanta United, is a good soccer player. Not only that, he’s a valuable soccer player in a salary cap league.

Amador’s guaranteed compensation in 2024 came out to $242,612. His budget charge against the salary cap in 2025 is somewhere around $242,612. He’s your cheapest senior roster player other than (technically) maybe Mateusz Klich. He’s also one of your best players.

Think about how many scouting misses Atlanta United has had over the last few seasons. That extra $1.4 million in GAM doesn’t guarantee good soccer players. You’ve already won the lottery with Amador. Why sell off your winning ticket for a chance at buying one or two more unknown stocks?

I’m gonna simplify this with a chart. We don’t know each player’s actual budget charge against the salary cap for certain, but we can make a general projection using their listed guaranteed compensation and their reported transfer fees. Remember: Budget charge = yearly guaranteed compensation + amortized transfer fee.¹

Amador is one of six players on the team with a positive goals added per 96 rate. He’s the only one below the TAM threshold.

And, over the last two seasons, Amador has been among the absolute best at his position. Here’s his G+/96 rate among starting fullbacks across 2024 and 2025. Keep in mind, Bernardeschi and Orellano are hyper-advanced wingbacks who spend time playing as forwards.

G+ isn’t everything, but, for me, Amador’s high-level G+ since arriving has tracked with the eye test. ² His numbers back up his performances. Yes, he’s seemingly taken a small step backward this year, but, well, so has, almost literally, everyone else.

$1.4 million in GAM is enticing. However, you can only generate $3 million in GAM from transfers each year. If you sell Amador and then someone swoops to offer transfer fees for one or two less effective players, you could still hit that $3 million mark…but without Amador on the team. Losing that on-field value isn’t worth the risk. Especially not in a year where nine senior roster players are set to reach the end of their guaranteed contracts.³ Atlanta will have flexibility in the middle of their roster this offseason. Their to-do list is already extensive. Why add finding an Amador replacement to it?

1. Also remember that DPs hit against the cap at the maximum buget charge a player can have before TAM comes into play. That’s why the three DPs are in the middle of the chart. Obviously, those spots have more value than their budget charge. I assume anyone reading Five Stripe Final dot com during a season where the team is averaging 0.94 points per game already knows this. But I wanted to clarify anyway.

2. btw, anyone else miss Andrew Gutman?

3. Amador isn’t one of them by the way. He’s under contract through 2026 with an option for 2027.