Preview: Atlanta United at Austin FC

the more money you spend the less you score

We’ll start this preview with a reminder that this game kicks off at 9 p.m. ET instead of 8:30. They moved kickoff back 30 minutes because the high in Austin today is 101 degrees. That’s 30 more minutes for you to try and contain your anticipation for another Atlanta United match day. Try not to explode.

Atlanta United

We’ll continue this preview with an injury update. Atlanta United will be missing three players on the back line tonight. Pedro Amador (adductor), Stian Gregersen (quadriceps) and Brooks Lennon (hamstring) are all out. That obviously means Ronny Deila will have to make some interesting lineup decisions but, frankly, this preview would have been about what personnel choices he needs to make anyway.

In particular, it’s clear there needs to be a change in central midfield. A double pivot of Alexey Miranchuk and Mateusz Klich is untenable. If Atlanta were keeping 60% possession and heading into each game preparing to break down a low block like it’s the Walls of Jericho. Instead, with Miranchuk and Klich, Atlanta have tilted the field less than ever. Their line of confrontation has dropped substantially. And they still can’t find a way to counterattack effectively despite a team like Chicago putting eight people in front of the ball.

The good news here for you (and for Deila) is that there’s a built-in excuse to not roll that pairing out tonight. Playing in 100-degree heat on short rest doesn’t seem ideal for your old, fun-run pace midfield. If there were ever a time to get Jay Fortune back in his proper position and pair him with Tristan Muyumba (or even Will Reilly if Muyumba isn’t fully fit), then it’s tonight. You could easily roll out a lineup that looks like this.

Or, if they want to keep something close to Saturday’s setup…

This could go multiple directions. And, well, either way, the back line is far from ideal.

But the non-Miranchuk/Klich options in midfield give you a few more piano carriers instead of piano players playing out of tune. You’re on the road, in the heat and with a side that’s struggling. Don’t keep trying to be cute about it.

One thing I’ll note here is that Deila may feel differently about what’s “cute” and what isn’t. Back in January, we had our first meeting with him. Somehow, the topic of Miranchuk’s pace came up and Deila pushed back on it as a problem. He cited the amount of ground Miranchuk covered per game as a reason not to worry.

Last week, I asked Derrick Williams about adjusting defensively when you have a pairing as slow as Miranchuk and Klich in front of you and he also brought up how much ground they both cover. I wanted to dig into that a little more, so I pulled the tracking data from MLS’s data provider, Sportec. Here’s where Atlanta United central midfielders rank among the 19 outfield players who have played 100+ minutes for Atlanta this season.

Distance covered per minute

1. Bartosz Slisz

2. Jay Fortune

5. Mateusz Klich

6. Alexey Miranchuk

7. Tristan Muyumba

Sprint distance per minute

11. Bartosz Slisz

13. Jay Fortune

15. Tristan Muyumba

18. Mateusz Klich

19. Alexey Miranchuk

High-speed distance per minute (a lower speed threshold than sprints but still more than a jog)

3. Jay Fortune

6. Bartosz Slisz

10. Tristan Muyumba

11. Mateusz Klich

14. Alexey Miranchuk

Now, to be really clear, tracking numbers are far from the be-all, end-all. They’re just extra data points. And since they’ve been cited a couple of times, I wanted to take a look under the hood.

I saw exactly what you’d expect. Yeah, Klich and Miranchuk cover some ground, but they don’t do it at speed. Some of that is influenced by game state, tactics and additional context. But this still largely matches what your eyes are telling you: These dudes are slow.

In general, analytics folks will tell you that distance covered doesn’t reveal much about a player’s effectiveness. I’m not saying that ground covered or ground covered at speed makes one player inherently better. But it is interesting to hear the team say they’re getting all this running out of Klich and Miranchuk when they’re not outrunning their teammates and the running they are doing happens slowly.

And if they aren’t covering ground quickly and winning the ball back…

And if they aren’t productive when they get on the ball…

Y’all get where I’m going here. There’s a chance these changes don’t look pretty but end up giving Atlanta more control of the game.

It’s not clear whether those changes are actually coming tonight or not. But, as always, changes to this squad can’t make anything worse than it already is.

Austin FC

We’ll make the Austin section more digestible.

• A lot of this is gonna sound familiar.

• Austin spent roughly $30 million on their attack. That includes bringing ATLUTD product Brandon Vazquez back to MLS.

• This attack is atrocious. They’ve scored eight goals.

• They’ve scored four times from open play.

• They’re 22nd in MLS in xG created.

• To be fair though, they defend well. They’re fifth in MLS in xG allowed. Only Seattle, Vancouver, Philadelphia and Minnesota have been better. They’re in really good company.

• This game is destined to end 1-0 Austin after Atlanta gifts them a goal out of nowhere.