Gonzalo Pineda's biggest challenge right now is to keep everything the same

Everything is (almost) fine

via Atlanta United

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Gonzalo Pineda doesn’t have to change much. 

Right now, Atlanta United is a baseball player going up to the plate and smacking the ball 105 mph each at bat…and heading right back to the dugout because they hit it directly at a fielder. The data suggests that a player hitting the ball over 100 mph should be getting on base far more than your average hitter. In this case, the batting average suggests they need to be benched. 

If you’re a coach in this scenario, the worst thing you could do is approach the player and try to correct a swing that doesn’t need corrections. They’re smacking the hell out of the ball. Encouraging the player to do anything beyond a minor adjustment would potentially ruin the swing entirely. 

The actual challenge then isn’t fixing the swing. It’s convincing the player to believe the swing doesn’t need fixing. If they stay the course, they’re almost guaranteed to start getting on base. 

If you, like me (and like the Atlanta United front office), believe that underlying numbers have some degree of predictive power and insight in MLS, then Atlanta United doesn’t need to change their swing. Atlanta United are first in MLS in American Soccer Analysis’ “goals added” metric. Atlanta United are fifth in expected points. Atlanta United are third in expected goal differential. And, when games are tied—AKA in an “even game state”—Atlanta United are second in the league in expected goal differential. 

That’s not to say everything is perfect. I’ll come out and say it: Atlanta shouldn't keep giving up goals where they deliver a high probability opportunity to the other team through avoidable mistakes.¹

That’s a correctable issue though. It can be fixed. For many MLS teams, issues like that are often fixed with a little more time together on the field. Not by magic words from coaches. It’s a lot tougher to suddenly start outplaying opponents on a regular basis. Atlanta United are creating better chances than their opponents over and over again and, whether you believe in xG or not, that’s a formula for winning games consistently. 

But when the results aren’t coming, it’s tough to convince anyone involved that staying the course is the right decision. If the players lose confidence in the system that’s generating those chances, the chances may stop coming. If the chances stop coming, a negative feedback loop that turns into a death spiral for Pineda’s tenure begins. 

So, how do you message that to players who aren’t staring at American Soccer Analysis spreadsheets all day? 

“At times I give them here and there are a couple of stats, but I think the players, they see football through the ball on the grass, right?” Pineda said. “They see football through that. At times the clips that we show we say, "Hey guys, we're doing this really good. Let's continue with this. Let's improve these areas." At times I throw up a couple of stats. But as a player I never rely on numbers. And when you lose, any number can be just an excuse or something. So for us, I have to take care of the process and how we play.” 

Whether or not Pineda can take care of that process over the next month could define his time in Atlanta. If he and this team can see it through and results start coming, this team can be right back at the top of the East with all of their goals still in front of them. It’s MLS after all. Things change quickly.  If anyone will be well aware of that, it’s Garth Lagerwey.

But if the dedication to that process evaporates over the course of the toughest stretch of Atlanta’s season, it may not be salvageable. Once the swing changes, there are no guarantees you get it back. 

Personally, it seems more likely to me that the results come before the belief disappears. I think the players believe that too. The locker room isn’t lost.

“No, I’m not worried about this team because we’ve got a lot of quality,” Tristan Muyumba said following last weekend’s loss to Minnesota. “We’ve got an amazing coaching staff, an amazing head coach, and amazing talent. I believe in everyone in this locker room. I’m not really worried about these few games, but we have to work hard, stay positive, and like I said, stay together.”

It’s all easier said than done. The schedule isn’t getting any easier anytime soon and results won’t just be handed to you because your xG has been high in previous games. The team has to keep creating chances. They have to keep defending well in their own box. They have to stick to the system that’s allowing them to do all that. And somewhere in the midst of it, they have to find a way to stop making critical mistakes. 

If Pineda can convince the players that they’re on the right path, I think they’ll accomplish all of that. If not, semi-serious conversations about the future will become a lot more serious. It’s time to start winning. That only happens if (almost) nothing changes. 

1. I don’t even know how to extend the baseball metaphor here. Maybe it’s the equivalent of running to third base instead of first?