Worrying about Miranchuk Pt. 2: The Atalanta Effect

Same anxiety. Even dumber math.

Yesterday we looked at a proven statistical pattern in soccer called the substitute effect. Today we’re going to look at an unproven thing I made up a few minutes ago called “The Atalanta Effect.”

REMEMBER: This is not to say that Miranchuk will be good or bad in MLS. No one truly knows. It’s just to think about how we think about his statistics. Welcome to Five Stripe Final.

While looking through Alexey Miranchuk’s numbers as a substitute and starter yesterday, I resisted the urge to veer off track and talk about Atalanta in general. I did mention briefly that Miranchuk’s numbers as a starter with Torino in 2022-23 were incredibly uninspiring, but I didn’t take it the extra step. I didn’t want the somewhat decent research to get bogged down by my 1910s detective “NOW BACK TO MY HUNCH” ideas.

Today though, I’m unburdened by what has been. Let’s talk about the statistical effect of simply playing on a team that produces a lot of statistics.

Since 2016, Atalanta have been managed by a man named Gian Piero Gasperini. When Gasperini arrived, Atalanta were normally spending their time in Serie A fending off relegation. Since his arrival, they’ve turned into a team that lives at the top half of the table. In 2019, they qualified for the Champions League for the first time in club history. Last year, they won the Europa League. With Gasperini in charge and a consistent flow of attacking talent coming through the pipes, Atalanta have reshaped their place in the world.

They’ve also become noted as a team that wants nothing more than to beat you 6-4. These dudes want to score. Gasperini sets up in a 3-4-3ish kind of thing that utilizes man-marking principles and basically says, “How can defending be real if our eyes aren’t real??” In 386 games in charge of Atalanta, his teams have scored 746 times and allowed 458 goals.

All of that is an incredibly simplified overview, but you get the point. Atalanta wants to put the ball in the back of the net as the first, second and third priority. I love them. I think they’re a light in the darkness. But I also think that their style of play is a statistical steroid. A system where every player is a system quarterback. An air-raid offense where everyone gets to throw the ball 50 times a game.

You don’t have to look hard to see it. Let’s look at a quick slide show of Atalanta’s recent outgoing transfers.

Here’s Rasmus Højlund at Atalanta in 2022-23…

Here’s Rasmus Højlund at Manchester United the next season…

Now, you might be saying, “But Sam, Manchester United is a dumpster fire of an organization that played Coward Ball for the entirety of 2023-24 to keep their tactical identity in line with their American fan base that hasn’t pulled their Wayne Rooney shirsey out of the closet since 2012 and probably couldn’t even find it among the Patriots and Golden State merch they’ve also stopped wearing at this point.” To that, I’d say, you’re definitely correct and also that I would suggest they try looking underneath all of their new Chiefs merch. But it doesn’t stop there.

Here’s Jeremie Boga with Atalanta in 2022-23 and then with Ligue 1’s Nice the next year.

Not a complete drop-off like Højlund, but still a drop-off.

How about Ruslan Malinovskyi, who left Atalanta for a moment in 2022-23 to spend time on loan at Ligue 1’s Marseille?

Or maybe we can look at even more relevant example? Here’s Orlando City’s Luis Muriel in his last season with Atalanta and this season as a DP with the Lions.

Or, ya know, what about…Alexsey Miranchuk? Here’s his last season with Atalanta and the season he spent on loan with Torino.

Now, substitute effects are definitely at play with Muriel and Miranchuk especially, but the drop-off is still worth noting overall. Just some quick caveman math here…

Among those five outbound attacking players that left Atalanta, their xG+xA per 90 dropped an average of 0.19 with their new team. In FBref percentile chart terms, they dropped an average of 50 percentile points with their new team.

Again, I’m not trying to make a statement about whether Miranchuk is good or bad or will be good or bad once he makes his debut for Atlanta United later this month. I’m just saying to pump the brakes on the per-90 statistics talk. That’s all really. He could be a superstar in the end. Even if those per-90 stats are inflated by a couple of factors, they’re still great stats. You don’t fall ass-backward into those. The question is whether or not those numbers will translate to MLS despite those factors. Your guess is as good as any.