Was Tata Martino's only real skill having a healthy team?

Atlanta United can't stay healthy

---

No. 

But I needed that headline to catch your attention. I feel like a scientist in a disaster movie who’s realized the world is about to end and NEEDS TO TALK TO YOUR TOP MEN before it’s too late. 

That’s because we need to talk about “9+2” or we will never understand Gonzalo Pineda’s tenure in charge of Atlanta United. 

A reminder on 9+2

A quick refresh: “9+2” is a framework for assessing lineup strength. Garth Lagerwey first introduced the concept to me last year. It’s been around since Lagerwey’s days in Seattle where Sounders’ analytics legend Ravi Ramineni realized that MLS teams tend to see a notable dropoff in performance once a team’s lineup includes three or more players who are not starting caliber or are lacking experience. 

If you have your best XI in the starting lineup, that’s 11+0. Take a starting-caliber player out and that’s 10+1. Lose two and you’re at 9+2. Lose three and you’re at 8+3 and results start to fall off. Get to 7+4 and you’re in trouble. 

I’ve laid it all out in detail here, but it’s typically used as a way to know when it’s ok to “play the kids” or rotate players in your lineup. If you’re in charge, you can throw two inexperienced players into the lineup if you have nine players of quality and experience around them. 

But it can also be a way for us to look at how strong a team’s lineups are in general. Or, in other words, how consistent and healthy a team has been throughout a season.

It’s not an objective science. The players you consider “starting caliber” might differ from what I consider “starting caliber.” And a player like Caleb Wiley can go from “inexperienced” to “starting caliber” over the course of a couple of seasons. 

But here’s the bottom line: I looked back at every single Atlanta United starting lineup from the glory days of 2017 to 2019 and I looked back at every Atlanta United starting lineup from Gonzalo Pineda’s tenure, starting with his first full season in 2022 up to Saturday’s game in Nashville, and assessed their “9+2” status. Pineda has experienced a comical amount of terrible injury luck relative to the most successful Atlanta United head coaches. 

Two eras

In Tata Martino’s two MLS seasons in charge, Atlanta United played 68 games. Even if with long-term injuries to guys like Josef Martinez, Darlington Nagbe and Greg Garza, they dropped below a 9+2 lineup in seven of their 68 games. In the 61 games they played at 9+2 or higher, they earned 1.92 points per game. In the seven games below 9+2, they earned 1.43 points per game. 

In Frank de Boer’s non-Covid year in 2019, Atlanta United earned 58 points over 34 games. They played 29 of those games at 9+2 or better and five at 8+3. In the 29 games at 9+2 or better, they earned 1.83 points per game. In the five at 8+3, they earned 1.00 points per game. 

In Gonzalo Pineda’s 81 regular season games from 2022 to 2024, Atlanta United have played 54 games at 8+3 or worse. 54. Games. Atlanta played 12 at 8+3 or worse over the entirety of 2017 to 2019. 

In those 54 games, Atlanta United have averaged 1.19 points per game. In the rare instance they’ve been 9+2 or better (27 games), they’ve earned 1.7 points per game. 

In the 26 games they’ve played at exactly 8+3, they’ve earned 1.46 points per game. In the 28 games they’ve played at 7+4 or worse, they’ve earned 0.64 points per game. They’ve played more 7+4 or worse games than 9+2 or better games. 

When we talk about the Pineda era compared to Atlanta’s most successful seasons, we’re not just talking about two rosters of wildly varying quality when comparing 2017-19 to 2022-23 (and to a lesser extent 2024). We’re also talking about a team that just hasn’t been able to stay healthy to an absurd degree. 

Now, you might be wondering how I got to those numbers. I’m fully prepared to show my work. Here’s my full spreadsheet with a 9+2 assessment of each lineup.

Remember though, it is a subjective practice. You might come to slightly different conclusions as to which days Atlanta put out a 9+2 or an 8+3. In fact, I’d encourage someone else to take a crack at it. But I'm going to bet that, in almost every scenario, you’d conclude that injury luck has limited the last 81 games to an absurd degree relative to the first three seasons. 

That includes this season. Atlanta United has played four games at 9+2 or better. In those games, they’ve earned 2.25 points per game. In the nine games they’ve 8+3 or worse, they’ve earned 0.44. 

ATLUTD INJURY FAQ

This brings up some questions about the onslaught of injuries. They’re fair to ask. 

Q: Is it the turf? 

I’ll do my best to not be snarky here about the previous teams playing on turf too. I will concede though that there have been changes to the turf multiple times in Mercedes-Benz Stadium’s history. Maybe there’s something to it, but studies have generally shown that the hierarchy is: Good grass > Good turf > Bad grass > Bad turf. I’m highly skeptical of the idea that Atlanta has installed bad turf in the last few years. 

Q: Is Gonzalo Pineda pushing the team too hard?

Pineda pays a ton of attention to what his sports science staff is telling him. They track players in training, in game and in pretty much everything they do. Pineda has even said they’ve reviewed their training sessions from past seasons and compared them to now and they found no difference in intensity or load. 

Remember, Tata Martino had actual, real-life MLSPA complaints filed against him for not giving players enough time off. At least three that we know of. It doesn’t seem like overtraining is a problem.

Q: Are Pineda’s pressing tactics causing this?

Don’t confuse Atlanta being bad at pressing with the team suddenly running to a breaking point. They’re definitely bad at pressing. Like seriously, they’re really not good at it this year. But Martino’s teams pressed plenty. It’s not like there’s a drastic difference here. 

Q: Ok, well, what about the sports science staff?

Fair question! Annoying answer. Ryan Alexander, the team’s Director of Sports Science, has been in his role with the team since 2016. 

Q: ….well………

Yeah, y’all. I really don’t know what’s up. Things have felt cursed since Atlanta lost three people to Achilles' tears in the span of about a month in 2022. It could genuinely just be a mixture of terrible luck and injury-prone players. 

The perils of an Atlanta United™ game model

It’s true of course that other teams have injuries and are able to pick up points. I’d guess that Atlanta United has been more injured than anyone over the last three years, but still, it’s not unfair to ask why less talented rosters are still pulling out results, injuries or not. 

For that, I think you can look to the game model. From the jump, Atlanta United has looked to utilize a game model that emphasizes being on the front foot, keeping possession and attempting to overwhelm weaker teams. That’s a tougher proposition in MLS than in any other league. The salary cap limits depth. And without depth, it’s tough to sustain a game model predicated on cohesive attacking play that demands chemistry and quality when players are missing. 

That doesn’t make it a poor model though. If you look at possession numbers of MLS Cup winners going back to 2016 (as far back as FBRef’s possession numbers go), they’ve averaged 52.9% possession. That’s far from a perfect stat, but it illustrates what the eye test already tells us. You typically have to be able to use the ball and control games to win a title. 

On the flip side of that, Supporters’ Shield winners have averaged 50.7% possession. You see Shield teams playing against the ball more often. Why? Well, think Red Bulls. It’s a game model that raises your floor in MLS. There’s a reason New York hasn’t missed the playoffs in over a decade. But it also can limit your ceiling. There’s a reason New York hasn’t won a damn thing in all those playoff appearances. 

If you want Cups, you should want Atlanta to stick to the model they’ve had since Tata arrived. And, well, guess what: They’re gonna. But it’s worth noting that, in this case, a higher ceiling comes with a lower floor. 

What does it all mean?

This isn’t a pitch to save Gonzalo Pineda’s job. It’s a pitch for everyone to better understand a critical factor behind this team’s lack of success in the last three seasons. If that doesn’t change how you feel about the future, that’s understandable. But, in my opinion, it should change how you feel about everything up to this point. 

And it should also color your understanding of the team’s approach to Pineda’s job status. They’ll be well aware of the challenges this team is facing right now. Until Pineda loses the locker room or a healthy, 9+2 version of this team starts losing, a move feels unlikely.

There’s a chance they part ways before then of course. If only because the team might need a breath of fresh air. But it’s also not farfetched to think that this team finally being healthy could make all the difference. We’ll see if it ever happens.