Preview: Atlanta United vs. Orlando City
Sunday was fun at least
Atlanta United are coming off their biggest win of the year just in time for a rivalry matchup. They’ve either set up a turning point moment that we’ll look back on as the week they saved the season or they’ve set up the most deflating possible loss. Should be…fun?
It could be really fun if Atlanta is able to exploit space in behind the way they did against Cincinnati. We have a full breakdown of that here if you’re interested. My worry, though, is that this will feel a lot like last year’s playoffs. The space that Atlanta found against Inter Miami last fall and the space they found against Cincinnati on Sunday may not be as available tonight.
To keep it simple: Orlando is a much better team than Cincinnati. Cincy’s underlying numbers coming into Sunday were among the worst in the East. They were and are overperforming by a remarkable amount. Atlanta just found ways to exploit their already pleasant issues. Again, sounds really similar to what happened in November, huh?
Anyway, we’ll frame the rest of this conversation with my actually pretty useful power ratings metric, COPE (Coefficient of Power Expected). Normally, COPE is there for us to look at Atlanta United and say, “Well if they could just play up to their underlying numbers…” That hasn’t really been the case this season, but the numbers are getting better after Sunday. Meanwhile, Cincy and Orlando are trending in opposite directions despite their place in the table.
COPE uses points, expected points, goal differential, expected goal differential and American Soccer Analysis’ “goals added” to rate each team. By those numbers, this is far and away the best Orlando side we’ve ever seen.
When Atlanta lost 3-0 to Orlando earlier in the year, it felt bleak to perform like that against a team that’s typically been good but not great. Now, it seems like Atlanta just ran into a buzzsaw.
What’s different this year? Well, for one their DPs have found a groove. Luis Muriel finally started playing up to his DP tag, Martin Ojeda is playing his best ball since arriving a couple of seasons ago and new DP winger Marco Pasalic has proven that scoring four goals in the Croatian Premier League actually means you’re an elite winger in MLS.
In addition to that trio, Eduard Atuesta has been doing Eduard Atuesta things in midfield. He operated as one of the best midfielders in MLS during his time at LAFC and he hasn’t slowed much in Orlando. Grabbing him before anyone else could is one of the league’s best moves of the recent offseason.
There’s also Alex Freeman, the 20-year-old son of former NFL receiver Antonio Freeman, who’s turned into a star at right back. He’s going to earn a European transfer soon and seems like a potential USMNT starter in the near future.
This is going to be an uphill battle for Atlanta. They’re facing a much better team. The hope here is that momentum and home-field advantage is real. There was a lot to like on Sunday. Tonight, we get a sense of how replicable it all was.