Pre-match thoughts: Atlanta United is too big to (keep) fail(ing)

A $25 million expansion is a shiny reminder

via Atlanta United

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Last week, Atlanta United unveiled a $25 million expansion to the club’s headquarters in Marietta. That’s $25 million and 20,000 square feet added on to the $60 million, 30,000 square foot facility they’ve been operating out of since 2017. Even before that expansion, you’d have been hard-pressed to find a better home base for any club in MLS. Now, you’d have a tough time making an argument for another club.

Yeah, the bonus media facilities are cool, but what really matters here is the expanded developmental area. The academy and second team now have their own weight room, recovery setup and offices. When we toured the expansion, we caught up briefly with Atlanta United Director of Methodology, Dr. Javier Pérez, whose coaching career began with Real Madrid’s youth teams. He told us that you’d have to go to Real Madrid or Barcelona to find a nicer academy setup in Spain. And in MLS, there are very few competitors.

It’s an impressive building. It’s also an expensive reminder that the level of investment into the club itself hasn’t matched the club’s on-field results for the entirety of the 2020s.

It’s a tough idea to reconcile. Take a look at the overall picture and the math doesn’t add up.

Between the training ground and Mercedes-Benz Stadium, no MLS club has a better set of facilities. Between Garth Lagerwey, Chris Henderson, Perez and multiple others who rank high on Atlanta United’s org chart, no MLS club has put together a front office with this group’s level of success at previous MLS stops. Between signings like Latte Lath, Thiago Almada and Alexey Miranchuk, no club has spent more to bring in Designated Players. And between 30 MLS teams, 24 of them are averaging a higher rate of points per game than Atlanta United this decade.

Obviously, there isn’t a 1-to-1 ratio of investment to success in MLS. The salary cap makes sure of that. But investment does mean marginal advantages that tilt the odds slightly in your favor. Which puts us at two conclusions:

1. It’s truly wild, embarrassing and unlucky that things are as bad as they are.

2. Atlanta United will, eventually, be very good at soccer again as long as the level of investment stays high.

That return to success won’t happen just because there’s investment. There clearly needs to be significant changes in talent identification and coaching. And, if you’re going to spend, why undermine yourself by staying static in those areas when what’s currently in place isn’t working? You still have to be proactively seeking success.

But in the quest to roll high on new talent, new coaches, new everything, it all becomes a little more likely you hit on a nat-20 when you have extra dice to roll.

I know no one wants to hear that a few hours before a probable bloodletting from LAFC that pushes Atlanta United a little closer to the Wooden Spoon. There’s a light at the end of the tunnel, though. Because Atlanta United is actively spending on resources to blow up the tunnel. Last week’s unveiling of a multi-million dollar expansion is a reminder of that. Now, they owe it to themselves as a club to make sure those investments aren’t being hampered by bad tactics and a roster that doesn’t fit together.

Some quick notes for tonight

• Luke Brennan is out while he’s playing for the USMNT U-20 team at the U-20 World Cup. Last week, he delivered a gorgeous assist in a substitute appearance during a 3-0 win over France. That likely means Saba Lobjanidze gets the start tonight.

• Brooks Lennon is also out with Achilles Tendinitis. It’s plausible that he’s played his last match for Atlanta United.

• LAFC is missing practically no one. Most importantly, both Denis Bouanga and Son Heung-min are available tonight. LAFC have scored 17 goals over their last six games. Bouanga and Son have scored all 17.

• The odds of slowing down this LAFC side are slim in the best of circumstances. Going across the country as an already eliminated side that wasn’t putting in a high-level effort in the best of times means that tonight could be rough. Really, really rough. Usually in MLS, that means something inexplicable will happen and Atlanta will earn a point or three. Just because.

• Atlanta United have one (1) road win this season. That’s the work mark in the East. The only team with fewer road wins are the Galaxy.

• Someone asked a while back if a college football team would end up with more wins than Atlanta United at some point during the MLS season. We’ve officially reached that mark. Memphis is 6-0 after 45-7 win over Tulsa.