On Gonzalo Pineda's tenure at Atlanta United and soccer's cruel ways

Pineda could've used more of something that can't be given: luck.

[Deep breath]

Sorry I had to use that again, but, for me, it represents so many things. 

The obvious is that it’s the last moment of Atlanta United’s beginning. Ever since then, y’all have been watching…whatever this has been. 

It’s also a reminder of how mean this sport can be. Sometimes you can do nearly everything right and still come up short. 

Gonzalo Pineda’s tenure in Atlanta felt like one extended Nick DeLeon game. His first year in charge, Atlanta United caught the first case of contagious exploding Achilles syndrome. It decimated an already mediocre roster. 

His second year in charge, the team fought through intermittent injuries and having to start Matheus Rossetto to score 66 goals and earn 51 points.

This year, he immediately lost his starting center backs to injury, lost a random assortment of key players to injury week to week, and still put up near-league-best underlying numbers. Atlanta is second in American Soccer Analysis’ Goals Added metric and fifth in expected goal differential. Compared to the rest of the league, Atlanta have underperformed their expected points total by the second-highest number in the league. 

Basically, Pineda leaves after guiding a team with a well-above-average injury rate to underlying numbers on par with or better than LAFC, FC Cincinnati and Real Salt Lake and a point total on par with Chicago. The timeline where Atlanta is a Shield contender in his first year with a decent roster isn’t far from ours. 

But it’s not our timeline. 

After a fifth straight home loss, Atlanta had to make a move. I don’t believe this run of form is on Pineda’s tactics or man management or anything that truly can be classified as being within his control. But part of the role—maybe the only true role—of being a manager is being a figurehead. When you drop five home games in a row, something has to change. A club that doesn’t make a move in this situation can start to suggest with their inaction that those results are acceptable. The manager will always be and is paid to be the first person to fall.

There are a few things worth clarifying though when we talk on and look back at his tenure. First, it’s my strong opinion that anyone suggesting some kind of tactical ineptitude is straight-up wrong. He made tweaks when needed and his tactics resulted in elite underlying numbers when he finally got a quality roster.  I can promise you that if you were to have a conversation with him you’d immediately realize how knowledgeable he is. If you’ve watched and rewatched his games intently, you know how often his teams were set up to succeed, especially this season. 

Now, what you can argue about is whether his game model is optimal for MLS. It asks a lot of players in possession and it demands a high level of execution on the ball. In MLS, it’s rare to have a starting lineup that can play at that level game over game and even rarer to have players that can do that once you’re forced to dig into the depth chart. An Atlanta that’s more successful in the regular season going forward probably looks like an Atlanta side that is able to play against the ball more often. That’s both in terms of its game model and in terms of its personnel.

What you can’t argue is whether or not Pineda treated people well. Keep in mind, the media typically only gets to see what people are like in front of a camera. But I haven’t found anyone inside the organization who thinks poorly of him. And in my personal interactions with him, he always spoke knowledgeably, thoughtfully and was incredibly gracious with his time.

via Atlanta United

Earlier this year, I bothered Pineda after a press conference about a tactical question. He absolutely had better things to do than deal with me. Instead of dismissing me though, he asked for a pen. He put a piece of paper up against the wall and diagrammed the core principles of Atlanta’s tactical philosophy. He always had time for you, whoever you were, and I can only hope the next person in charge has his patience. 

In the end though, it’s fitting this ends after the two games Atlanta just played. On Wednesday against Inter Miami, they showed how good they can be and how effective they can be against a team willing to try and use the ball. Most importantly, the ball went in when they generated chances. On Sunday, they showed how unlucky they could be and how that could spiral against a team fully prepared to sit deep. Derrick Williams had the ball bounce off him into the goal, a VAR review didn’t go Atlanta’s way, a 0.03 xG shot went in for Charlotte went in and Atlanta didn’t hit the gas until it was too late. Oh, and of course, a key player picked up an injury. We got an idea of what could have been under Gonzalo Pineda and another representation of what it actually was all in one week. 

Sometimes the ball goes in. Sometimes you catch a break. And sometimes you get as much as you can right and get nothing in return. 

I hope Pineda gets another shot at managing a team someday. Maybe he’ll have a little more luck. Whenever he gets it, he'll have earned it.