Atlanta United vs. Philadelphia Union Preview: Look at me. I’m the Red Bulls now.
(Liberty) Bells on parade.
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What’s your favorite Atlanta United win over the Philadelphia Union this decade? Is it the 2-0 win in July of 2023? Or is it…..um……………uh-oh.
Atlanta United have beaten Philadelphia once in their last 11 tries in all competitions. After winning three of their first four meetings, Atlanta have gone 2W-5D-6L against the Union.
We can diagnose a few problems here. The most notable issue is that since 2020 the Union have been a good soccer team and Atlanta United haven’t. Philadelphia’s 1.66 points per over the last five seasons is the best mark of any MLS team. Atlanta United’s rate of (ohmygod, yikes) 1.25 points per game in that span is better than only (ohmygod, yikes) Toronto, Chicago, San Jose, D.C., Houston and Austin. It’s always sunny in Philadelphia. Atlanta United are walking around in the sewers.
It doesn’t help that—in addition to being tougher and more physical—the Union’s play style has traditionally given Atlanta United fits. They play direct and they press. And, this year, they’re as direct and press-happy as ever.
The Union lead the league in “Passes Per Defensive Action” (PPDA), a metric that shows how many passes opponents make against a team before there’s a tackle attempt, interception or foul. It’s not a perfect measure of pressing intensity or effectiveness, but it’s a decent metric and it usually pairs pretty well with the eye test.
(NERD ALERT: If we want to go even further, we can look at their PPDA with their xPass Completion Against in the first two-thirds of the pitch. The Union are first in the league in opponent completions against xPass per 100 passes. Per ASA, opponents are completing three fewer passes than expected in the first two-thirds of the pitch. The next best team, San Jose, has opponents completing 1.29 fewer passes than expected. The Union are the best pressing side by a significant margin. In fact, only five teams in ASA’s database have better numbers. One is 2013 SKC and the other four are all Red Bulls sides.)
In this case, the eye test pairs extremely well. Sporting director Ernst Tanner made a coaching change this offseason specifically to return the team to their most Energy Drink Soccer ways and opted to bring in former Red Bulls manager Bradley Carnell to do it. He’s obliged, and, so far, the Union haven’t begun to fade in the summer heat like most Energy Drink teams eventually do.
Meanwhile, Atlanta has decided the way to solve their issues is to approach soccer the way the most relegatable Premier League sides do. The height of their defensive line has been retreating the past few weeks until it basically couldn’t go any lower.
Against a team like Austin, I’m going to complain about this. They’ve scored four open-play goals all season. Four. That’s the worst mark in MLS. Deciding you need to bunker against them feels like a terminal diagnosis for 2025 Atlanta United, but I guess I can see the glass half full take here is “they’re just establishing themselves defensively and will work on the attack as things move along.”
I’m not convinced there. However, I can see a world where this approach actually sets up relatively well against the Union. We’ve talked forever about how conceding possession to teams that aren’t comfortable with it can be an answer against teams like the Red Bulls. The Union are the most Red Bulls team out there right now. Making them prove they can break down a low block rather than continually building out and playing terrible passes into the teeth of their press is probably the best possible approach.
Will that approach work tomorrow?
Well, my gut call here is that Atlanta won’t defend well enough in their own box for a low-block set up to really matter. But, there’s a world where having three center backs allows Atlanta to deal with Philly’s two-striker setup and where having wingbacks helps limit the league leaders in crosses and chances created from crosses. Defensively, Atlanta might be alright.
The follow-up question here is a problematic one, though. How is Atlanta going to score?
Sitting deep and building out from deep against an elite pressing side isn’t ideal. And they haven’t shown an ability to effectively counter even against teams with loose rest defense principles like Chicago. The answer here probably has to be “get lucky.” Unless, of course, Ronny Deila decides to exchange some of the team’s slowest players for pacier options who are intent on progressing the ball at speed and who are conducive to playing counter-attacking soccer…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..so, yeah, Atlanta’s probably not going to score tomorrow.
Intelligence Briefing
The Union almost exclusively set up in what’s basically 4-2-2-2.
Tai Baribo is at the top of that 4-2-2-2. He’s the first and only MLS player to reach 10 goals on the season. He has not taken a penalty.
Since becoming a consistent starter midway through 2024, Baribo has scored 19 times in 2,227 minutes. That’s 0.80 goals per 96. He’s been on a Golden Boot-caliber pace.
Goalkeeper Andre Blake is battling a knee injury. That would be something to keep an eye on against teams who put a lot of shots on target.
José Martínez is gone, but Danley Jean Jacques is here as the latest No. 6 to turn into a star for the Union. In non-Martínez fashion, DJJ is currently on a run of five straight games with goal contribution. A streak that started when he scored against [oh god it’s gonna be Atlanta, it’s Atlanta isn’t it.] Atlanta United.
15-year-old Cavan Sullivan got five minutes against the Galaxy on Wednesday and 28 minutes against D.C. United a few weeks ago. The future Manchester City midfielder could get some playing time if this game turns ugly. So. At least there would be that.
Meanwhile, his brother, Quinn, is on a heater. He’s up to seven assists on the season. That’s the second-best mark in MLS.
Per FBref, the Union are third in MLS in expected goal differential per 90.
Have we mentioned they’re tied for the league lead in wins?’
Bench Miranchuk. Bench Klich. I can't watch these flat, unmotivated, uninspiring players any longer.
What if Atlanta played Luke Brennan on one wing, Mosquera on the other, and Miggy in the middle and just pumped through balls down the field all game? It might not work but could be really entertaining.