Atlanta United Season Preview Extravaganza

The biggest, most in-depth preview around

via Atlanta United

Preseason expectations for Atlanta United are higher than they’ve been in half a decade. Your friends at Five Stripe Final are here to explain why. Welcome to the most in-depth Atlanta United preview around. 

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What’s new for Atlanta United in 2024? 

by Rob Usry

This offseason provided a refreshing change of pace for the Five Stripes. It has seemed like every offseason since 2019 has brought about wholesale changes to either the core of the squad or key personnel within the organization. Whether the club experienced a massive upheaval of the roster or a new manager getting acquainted with Atlanta, there have been a lot of chaotic winters around these parts in recent times. 

Despite finishing outside of the Eastern Conference top four and being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, consistency and stabilization were the themes of this offseason. While there were depth moves, the number of moves that impacted the core pieces of the team were limited. It could be argued that only two starting spots from last season’s preferred XI will change heading into this season. 

Miles Robinson forced the first change when he declined Atlanta’s contract offer and decided to sign with FC Cincinnati. Carlos Bocanegra and company didn’t sit and sulk. Instead, they secured the signature of Stian Gregersen from Bordeaux to take Robinson’s place.. They also took advantage of unexplainable MLS offseason mechanisms and ended up with veteran defender Derrick Williams to help bolster the backline depth. It’s expected that Gregersen and Luis Abram will hold down the starting centerback positions, but Williams’ early preseason performances suggest he could push for more meaningful minutes as well. It remains to be seen if these changes will result in a more stingy defense, but it certainly seems like the depth has improved. 

Atlanta also needed to find a midfield partner for Tristan Muyumba. When the Frenchman arrived midseason he transformed the confidence and quality of the entire team. Even Matheus Rossetto, who was much-maligned for his lack of effectiveness in the midfield, improved upon this new addition to the lineup. With Rossetto one of several casualties to the regular offseason roster turnover, the club needed to find a new partner for Muyumba. 

Enter Bartosz Slisz, a young and dynamic holding midfielder from Poland. Perhaps the biggest signing of the winter for the club, the 24-year-old comes in with high expectations. He’ll be asked to improve the quality of the entire midfield and form a dominant partnership with Muyumba. Additionally, Atlanta recruited Dax McCarty, one of the most decorated players to ever lace up a pair of cleats in MLS, to help the midfield control matches and provide a significant boost to the team’s depth. 

Lastly, the club brought in California-born goalkeeper Josh Cohen, who had played in the Israeli Premier League with Maccabi Haifa the last four seasons, to compete with Brad Guzan for the starting job. Cohen won the Israeli Premier League’s Player of the Year award in the 2020-21 season, but it’s unclear how he’ll fare in MLS or if he’s beaten out Guzan for the starting job.

There’s always going to be changes from one season to another. While there are certainly some new faces around Atlanta to get acquainted with, it’s clear the goal was to keep the core intact as much as possible. The hope is obviously to continue to produce in the attacking end at the same rate as 2023, while cutting down on the amount of goals conceded. Whether that plan will translate to improved results on the field is up in the air, but the squad shouldn’t have to worry too much about building chemistry or adapting to their manager. We will see if this strategy pays off with a trophy this season. 

The Game Ain’t Played On A Spreadsheet, Y’all

by J. Sam Jones

It’s almost not even worth looking at 2023 Atlanta United prior to the summer window. There were good moments, sure. But there were also a lot of “Santiago Sosa and Matheus Rossetto in a double pivot” moments too.

Behold…

We all know that the Five Stripes became a different team once Saba Lobjanidze, Tristan Muyumba and Xande Silva arrived. It’s fair to say “trust your eyes” here and move on. Visual data is data just like xG is data. Atlanta United were a borderline excellent team over the final stretch of the season. 

Ok, hopefully that softened you up a bit, because now’s the part where we start throwing some cold water on things with the universe’s wet blanket: Math. 

Prior to the summer window, Atlanta United averaged 1.46 points per game and 1.39 expected points per game. That number comes via American Soccer Analysis and it’s exactly what you think it is. Basically, how many points were you expected to get based on the underlying numbers of each match. 

After the summer window, Atlanta United improved to 1.60 points per game over their final 10 games……but regressed to 1.17 expected points per game. What gives?

Well, the defense gave. A lot. While Atlanta United improved from 1.30 xG for per game to 1.59 xG for, they defense dropped from 1.18 xG allowed per game to 1.88 xG allowed. Only Toronto (yep, Toronto) had worse defensive numbers over that stretch. Even more concerning, the defense took a significant step back in even game states. With the game tied, the defense allowed 0.82 xGA per game after the summer window. Prior to that, they allowed 0.47 xGA. There’s a clear argument that the team got worse. 

This is a sentence that I put here to do nothing but give you an extra moment to let dread sink in. 

HOWEVER, let’s throw some context in. You have to start with the fact that Atlanta faced a hellacious schedule over the last 10 games. The Five Stripes went @Seattle, Nashville, Cincinnati, @FC Dallas, @D.C., Montreal, @Philadelphia, Columbus, @Cincinnati to close the year. That’s three games against either the Shield winner or MLS Cup winner, four very difficult road games, five games against teams that finished in the top four of their conference and seven games against playoff teams. 

They faced a gauntlet. Unsurprisingly, they gave up a bunch of chances on the road against some of the best teams in MLS while running out Rossetto as a No. 6. They clearly needed a serious upgrade in midfield as they took off the restrictor plates in attack and really opened things up. Hopefully, Bartosz Slisz is that upgrade. And hopefully, the team as a whole finds a way to maintain more control in their first full season as Atlanta’s new core. 

Meanwhile, over the course of the entire season, the Five Stripes needed more from their goalkeeping unit. Per FBref, Atlanta finished with the third worst Post-shot xG - Goals allowed in the league last year. Basically, only two teams were worse at shot-stopping. On an individual level, Brad Guzan allowed more goals relative to his post-shot xG faced than any starting keeper in the league. Either Guzan or new signing Josh Cohen will need to bring Atlanta back to at least somewhere near average this year. 

It would help of course to have proper protection in front of them. The numbers suggest that there are some valid concerns if part of that protection in front of them is Luis Abram. 

OK, a lot of negative there. Let’s refocus and talk about some positives. First, Slisz being a high-level No. 6 should fix a ton of issues and Stian Gregersen’s numbers prior to joining Atlanta are very encouraging.

Second, you should take a lot of solace in the underlying numbers of Atlanta’s newest attacking talent. Nothing about Giorgos Giakoumakis’, Saba Lobjanidze’s or Xande Silva’s performance in 2023 came as a fluke. GG finished in the 97th percentile among strikers in non-penalty xG. In limited minutes, Lobjanidze put up 97th percentile non-penalty xG+xA/90 among attacking midfielders. Silva put 82nd percentile numbers in the same category. If they maintain anything close to that level over the course of 2024 (and Thiago Almada is around to pull the strings) this is likely the best attack in the league. 

In the end, you didn’t need all of what came before this to tell you the conclusion. Atlanta needs to be stronger defensively, needs help from their keeper more often and needs to find a little more control amidst the chaos. Every move this offseason has been predicated on doing exactly that. If those moves hit, then the ceiling for this team is nothing short of a double. 

The Tactics

by Joe Patrick 

Since the day Tata Martino arrived, there has been one guiding principle upon which the team’s tactics are based: lay in a way that makes people want to come back and see more.

You might read that and think “attacking soccer.” That’s partly true. But last year pours cold water on the idea that the attacking side of the ball is the only thing that matters. Because if all you care about is goals scored, you adored last year’s team. Atlanta only trailed the eventual MLS Cup winners in goals scored. The Crew scored 67 goals to Atlanta’s 66.. That’s only four fewer goals than Atlanta United scored in their ballyhooed 2017 and 2018 season. 

Thiago Almada will continue to be here for the time being, Giorgos Giakoumakis proved himself as an undeniable finisher, and Xande Silva and Saba Lobjanidze on the wings are efficient and threaten to stretch opposing teams out and create spaces and opportunities. The attack wasn’t the problem in 2023 and it won’t be the problem this year.

Atlanta’s issues resided almost solely on the other side of the pitch, where the Five Stripes conceded more goals than any other team that qualified for last year’s playoffs (53). Those problems start at the goalkeeping position (STAT?), but they don’t end there. A team’s defensive record is even more of a “team product” than the scoring tally. And it’s also an area that Gonzalo Pineda and his staff will surely feel like they have more control over fixing. 

If you’re a long-time Five Stripe Final listener, you will know we’ve long-debated and chewed on the idea that a coach’s influence on results is on the minimal end of the spectrum. That’s why when talking about the tactics, we’ll focus less on what instructions may be given to players in certain situations, and look more closely at the basic structure of how the coach sets the team up while analyzing the players’ strengths and weaknesses to fit that structure.

Let’s start at the goalkeeping position though, where Atlanta United President Garth Lagerwey told Five Stripe Final in an exclusive podcast (out now!) that it was an evident area to add quality. 

“If you're in a value-based system, which is what a salary cap system is, you look at what's the highest value. And it looks like in the data that shot stopping is the highest value that you can buy for your money,” said Lagerwey. “If you can identify a player who's good at shot-stopping, then you can work on the rest.

“It's more complicated than that, not saying it's the only thing that matters. What I'm saying is: that's the thing that you can identify within the data that is objectively important and something that you can get at a value. Whereas buying goals tends to be very, very expensive. You can buy shot stopping at a much more value price point.”

And that’s exactly what Carlos Bocanegra and his front office staff did in acquiring Josh Cohen. 

But this is about tactics. Back to Garth.

“If you keep the ball out of the net –  we had a lot of times last year, we didn't do that,” Lagerwey said. ”And that's not on the goalkeeper, that's on the structure and the defense and how we played tactically and there's lots that goes into that, but that's really something that we looked at and reflected on after the season.”

It’s not just on Cohen to reverse Atlanta’s troublesome trend of conceding goals, it’s on the players around him. And Atlanta has new players in those areas too. t center back, Norwegian Stian Gregersen will take on the huge task of filling the void left by the uber-dependable Miles Robinson. So far in preseason, we are seeing Gregersen’s ability to chew up yards with his long strides up and down the pitch. But we have to be honest and say it’s an open question as to how he’s going to be able to deal with far superior attackers when he’s having to defend the open space behind him in less-than-ideal circumstances. But ultimately, Gregersen’s physical toolset – his size and speed – combined with his film at this point in his career give us a decent idea that he’ll fit in as at least a solid MLS CB. If he does indeed fill the shoes of the departed Robinson, that’s a massive win for the club.

That being said, midfielder Bartosz Slisz’s arrival may be the most impactful. He fills the shoes of Matheus Rossetto – God bless him – that should give Atlanta some much-needed nastiness and work rate in these central areas. I expect Slisz to give Atlanta a different mentality and toughness in transition moments on defense.  

While we’ve long given Rossetto a hard time for his faults, make no mistake, he was a skillful player on the ball here will be more on the plates of Tristan Muyumba and Thiago Almada to make up for the way Rossetto could resist pressure. But with the new midfield that includes Slisz, there’s far more balance among the attributes of the players, and more definition to the roles they will be responsible for on matchday. Slisz should offer Muyumba more opportunities to get forward and create. We saw last year just how effective Muyumba is at spotting the opposition’s vulnerabilities and exploiting it with his movement and touches. Now imagine him with a little more freedom.

Offensively, there’s not a ton to discuss. The wingers are going to be wingy and GG is going to score his goals so long as he stays healthy. 

The only thing to stress is Thiago Almada’s importance. In every game he missed last year, you could really feel it. Atlanta’s entire game runs through him, and even if he’s not getting all the touches, it means he’s attracting attention and opening up space for others. Few in MLS possess his combination of attributes both technically and also his vision and soccer IQ. He will be a massive loss to the team whenever he leaves, and it’s just really worth hammering home how fundamental he is to any success Atlanta has this season.

A warning about the rest of the East

by J. Sam Jones

As good as I personally believe Atlanta United will be, there’s one big issue you need to be aware of. This could easily be the best Atlanta team since 2019. In fact, it should be. However, don't be surprised if that’s true AND the Five Stripes fall short of 2019s 58 points. That doesn’t mean this group is going to be worse though. You have to understand, this year’s Atlanta is up against the best conference in MLS history. 

We’ll run through it quickly. 

• Charlotte FC are not good. Not yet. But they have two open DP spots and a ton of cash to splash. They’re going to make a pair of big signings that could elevate a roster that, for now, is more fine than good. 

• Chicago Fire FC just dropped about $13 million to bring in striker Hugo Cuypers from Gent. They added midfielder Kellyn Acosta and Andrew Gutman during the offseason. They have an open DP spot and they’re clearly not afraid to spend. The only reason to really doubt them right now is that they’re Chicago. 

• FC Cincinnati are replacing a few folks after winning the Shield last season, but there’s a strong chance they don’t miss a beat. They may have even upgraded at a few spots after signing Miles Robinson and new No. 8 Pavel Bucha. If striker Aaron Boupendza is on the field and focused, they’re good enough to win a second-straight Shield. 

• Columbus Crew haven’t touched a thing since winning MLS Cup. They’re as good as ever and entering their second year on Wilfried Nancy. 

• D.C. United also play in the East.

• I’m personally a bit concerned about Inter Miami but only in the sense that I think their injuries, lack of depth and lack of defensive effort will only allow them to win one or two trophies instead of three or four. They may not be consistent during the regular season, but expect them to live up to the hype when silverware is on the line. Did we mention they added Luis Suarez and Julian Gressel this offseason? 

• CF Montreal isn’t among the multiple candidates to win the conference but they have a solid roster, some exciting new pieces and are back to playing in the kind of possession-based game model that made them one of the league’s best in 2022.

• Nashville SC are good at defense and have Hany Mukhtar. That’s earned them a playoff spot every year of their existence. 

• The New England Revolution are past the weirdness of 2023 and seemingly have plenty of firepower up top. In particular, new DP winger Tomas Chancalay looked outstanding in limited minutes at the end of last season. They still have Carles Gil by the way. And they’re solid everywhere else. 

• NYCFC have leveraged their City Football Group connections to bring in another batch of exciting young attacking talent. With one of the league’s best midfield pairings in James Sands and Keaton Parks, they could be terrifying if the attack can gel. At the very least, they actually have a striker on the roster this year. That’s a big step forward.

• The New York Red Bulls finally added a bonafide, high-level DP by bringing in Emil Forsberg from RB Leipzig. He should enhance an attack backed by one of the best defensive setups in the league. If he clicks and New York brings in another attacking DP, this could easily be the best Red Bulls side since 2018, the year Chris Armas blew it. 

• Sorry, y’all. Orlando City are bringing nearly everyone back from their 63-point team last season. They’ve added a new starting center back, Atalanta striker Luis Murriel and Sounders legend Nico Lodeiro to the fold though. They could be even better this season.

• Philadelpha are the same Union team you’ve all come to know and love.

• Toronto FC…over/under is at 20.5 points, take the under. 

So. Yeah. Scary stuff. There are almost no breaks this year in the East. If you’re expecting 2018 point totals, don’t hold your breath. The good news for Atlanta though is that they don’t have to worry about an extra competition like Concacaf Champions Cup. The conference’s best teams will have their attention elsewhere at the start of the season. Inter Miami, Columbus, Nashville, Philadelphia, Cincy, Orlando and New England are all taking part in the revamped version of CCL. There’s an opening for the Five Stripes to slip into pole position at the start of the season. After that…you gotta beat the best to be the best, right? 

Predictions

Breakout player 

Who takes a big step forward in 2024? 

Rob: Caleb Wiley

But Rob, Caleb Wiley already took a big step last year! I agree, but I think there is a lot more potential left to fulfill. Caleb took the leap to become an above-average MLS fullback last season. This feels like the season he takes another huge step forward to start challenging for a spot on the U.S. men’s national team and potentially an MLS All-Star selection. He has the talent. It’s just a matter of producing consistent results at both ends of the field. I think he can do it and become a true star in MLS. 

Joe: Jay Fortune

Every year, you like to think your XI is totally set, and every year there are injuries, suspensions, and other circumstances that force a club’s depth to be tested. Fortune got a good taste of what MLS action at this level is like, and during that test he earned Gonzalo Pineda’s trust over some more experienced players. Fortune’s mobility and technical skill give him a foothold to find his way into the team when there are players missing, and I expect him to take advantage of those opportunities.

Sam: Noah Cobb

There aren’t a ton of players to pick who would surprise anyone by earning significant playing time. But Cobb should get a few minutes here and there and I would expect the 18-year-old (a newborn baby in center back years) to keep looking better and better every time out. His physical tools and mindset suggest that his future is very, very bright.

MVP

Who leads the way for the team? 

Rob: Tristan Muyumba

Thiago and GG will each take turns carrying the team, if it is to have success in 2024. However, both will miss chunks of time for various reasons. Muyumba was a revelation last season and is now settled into his surroundings and the team. He will start nearly every match and be a consistent focal point for the whole campaign. His goal and assists numbers won’t jump off the statsheet, but his impact will be undeniable. 

Joe: Thiago Almada

Atlanta’s attack runs through him. He gives the team its precision and incisiveness on the counter, and he’s a set-piece magician. He’s among the two or three best players in the league (with great arguments for being the best) and Atlanta is not the same team without him.

Sam: GG

We can’t all pick Almada. Giakoumakis told media before the first preseason match that he had rethought his approach to fitness this offseason. After missing, a couple of preseason matches, it’s fair to be a bit concerned about how effective that approach is. But I’ll bank on him being healthy and being a top contender for the Golden Boot. 

Over/unders

O/U 66.5 goals scored. Does 2024 Atlanta outscore 2023 Atlanta?

Rob: Under

As great as the attack was last season, I just have this overall feeling of dread that they are due for some stagnation. Consistency within the squad is great, but with no new additions to the attack, it could start to get a little repetitive and stale as the season goes on. I have no doubt it’ll be a formidable attack, but betting the under is the smart move here. 

Joe: Under

I don’t feel great about this prediction, but considering the interruptions that could happen with selection in the summer, the fact that Almada could be lost at that point in the transfer window, and possibly renewed attention to the defensive side a la 2019, I’ll lean under. 

Sam: Over

Last year’s group outperformed their underlying numbers in attack.  But, then again, last year’s group didn’t have this kind of firepower until 24 games in. There’s a chance they match the 2017 and 2018 team with 70 goals. Mostly though, I didn’t want us all to pick under and get memed later in the year.

O/U 53.5 goals allowed. Does 2024 Atlanta allow fewer than 2023 Atlanta? 

Rob: Under

A revamped midfield will relieve a ton of pressure on both the backline and goalkeepers. It really is as simple as that. It won’t be Greece in Euro 2004 levels of stoutness, but it will be improved from last season. 

Joe: Under

See the point above about the team really focusing on keeping teams out, which will be aided by the additions the team has made not just at the goalkeeper position, but Bartosz Slisz helping out a lot here as well. 

Sam: Under

But not by much. I expect the defense to be better. I also expect games to be open and the East to be good enough to capitalize on that.

O/U 0.5 Landon Donovan MLS MVP Awards

Rob: Under

But it will be an Argentina international who wears No. 10. Sorry. 

Joe: Under

I predict Almada will be on an MVP pace, but may miss enough games to keep his counting stats down – and who knows if he even lasts the whole season. For this reason, I think GG might be the Atlanta player that has the best chance of doing it. 

Sam: Under

I picked Cucho. 

O/U 2.5 All-Stars

Rob: Under

The MLS All-Star Game is July 24. The Summer Olympics start July 26. Wiley and Almada will deserve it but won’t be chosen due to conflict. GG and Muyumba get in. 

Joe: Over

This Atlanta starting XI has the most quality pieces since 2019. At least three will be ASG picks (I’ll predict Almada, GG, Muyumba and Wiley)

Sam: Over

GG and Almada feel like locks. One of Saba, Silva, Muyumba, Wiley, or Lennon will find their way in. 

O/U 0.5 new DP signings. Over means Thiago Almada is studying abroad by the end of the summer.

Rob: Under

I’m not convinced we’ll see a DP signing in the traditional sense until the U-22 spots are sorted out. Even if Almada leaves, I think they’ll continue to play musical chairs with the DP spots and sign TAM players like they did with Saba and Slisz. 

Joe: Over

I just think it has to happen. The countdown clock on his contract is ticking and he’s obviously not going to sign a new one. Summer is the best window to sell because European clubs have more flexibility to arrange their wage books. 

Sam: Under

Only a few teams have the cash to afford Almada. Fewer teams are willing to pay that much and take a risk on his physical limitations. Most importantly, Atlanta is in no hurry to sell. I’ll be brave here. And stupidly optimistic. I also just kind of need him to be here to make the rest of my predictions come true.

O/U a 4 and 1/2 place finish. Will the Five Stripes earn a home playoff spot? 

Rob: Over 

Hot start. Shaky summer. Post-Transfer Deadline push to get into the top four. Seems like a plausible scenario to me, considering how thin the squad could be with all the international competitions to navigate. 

Joe: Over

The team wasn’t far off of accomplishing this last year, despite having the good version of their team for basically less than half the season. 

Sam: Over

The East is a bloodbath, but Atlanta is the only contender that doesn’t have to worry about Concacaf. I think that kind of marginal difference is enough. 

Something wild.

The FSF Gang Takes A Wild Guess

Rob: Edwin Mosquera will outproduce a starting winger

This is supposed to be wild, right? I don’t know who it will be, but Edwin Mosquera will build on his strong 2023 and produce more G+A than either Saba or Xande. 

Joe: Caleb Wiley will be ATL’s 5th-leading scorer

The order will be GG, Almada, Silva, Saba, Wiley

Sam: Dax McCarty scores twice

Dax hasn’t scored more than once in a season since 2016. Since 2017, he’s scored zero times in a season more than he’s scored once. This is the year that changes for no real explainable reason.

Atlanta United wins a trophy if…

Rob: They play at home when it matters 

It’s a tough ask, but I just don’t see this team being able to go into a hostile environment and win yet. They’ll need to make sure to put themselves in position to feed off the home crowd advantage as much as possible. 

Joe: Josh Cohen is a top-10 goalkeeper in G-xG

There’s obviously a lot more to it than this, but the point is this team will easily be among the league’s elite if they get above-average shot-stopping.

Sam: Bartosz Slisz is the real deal

He’s the key to everything. If he stabilizes the midfield in the way we all think he can, then this is easily one of the best teams in the league.