Atlanta United at Columbus Crew preview: The playoffs are drifting out of sight. Now what?

not in the face

Phew. Ok. Deep breath. We’re back to watching Atlanta United play actual matches again before we get yet another week and a half off. It’s nice that they’re spreading this out at least.

It’s less nice that they’re making the team play this match after losing Jay Fortune for the season thanks to an absolutely cowardly decision that could have easily been avoided. The foul was bad, too.

With Fortune out for the year—the team said yesterday that he’ll have surgery on his foot soon—Atlanta’s already incredibly slim playoff hopes feel even slimmer. Based on each club’s current points per game rate, the projected playoff line is at 50 points. (That’s 10 points more than Atlanta United had last season.) If Atlanta is going to reach that mark, they’ll need to earn 2.06 points per game over the next 16 games. The current leaders of both conferences, Philadelphia and Vancouver, are averaging 2.06 points per game.

Even if we’re being extremely generous and we push the line alllllllllll the way down to the same 40-point mark that Atlanta barely crossed last season, the Five Stripes will need 1.44 points per game. The odds that Atlanta match that pace are low. The odds that three teams battling for the two Wild Card spots in the East all collapse to that extent are even lower.

Even if they did make the playoffs, it would take a heckuva summer window to convince anyone this group had the juice to make a run. That leaves the team with real choices to consider about the rest of the year. Do you go through the motions and pretend you still have a shot at accomplishing any of your original goals? Or do you wave the “punt” flag and approach the rest of the year as a tune-up for 2026?