Are you sure?

What if we're talking about tomorrow all wrong?

In their last five meetings with Inter Miami, Atlanta United have three wins, a draw and one loss. That one loss came with Atlanta United playing their third road match in six days. Are we even talking about an upset?

 In Game Two of this series, Atlanta United gifted Inter Miami a goal and their biggest chance of the night. Atlanta out-created Inter Miami 1.7 xG to 1.6 with 0.59 of that coming via that gift. Are we even talking about an upset? 

Inter Miami may be without Sergio Busquets. He’s been recovering from illness and a knock all week and hasn’t been in training. He’s listed as questionable but who knows how many minutes he’ll get. Midfielder Yannick Bright is out. Atlanta United will get center back Stian Gregersen back for this one and he may even start. Are we even talking about an upset? 

In Game Two, Atlanta United worked comfortably around Inter Miami’s midfield, pressed effectively and limited nearly everything the Herons tried to do. Now, Miami will have to adjust and there aren’t clear answers. Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez give them a distinct talent advantage up top, but Atlanta’s midfield outplayed Miami’s in game two and the Five Stripes’ back line did the dirty work when necessary. They’ll have to find a way to gain numbers advantages in areas they didn’t have them in Game Two. There’s a chance they overthink those changes. They may just be shook. Are we even talking about an upset? 

They’ve totally forgotten that Julian Gressel is on their team and as long as no one tells them he’s still there Atlanta may avoid having to deal with him. Meanwhile, Atlanta knows that Pedro Amador is on the team and goes as far to start him in important games. Are we even talking about an upset?

Per American Soccer analysis, Inter Miami earned 44.22 expected points over the course of the season. Atlanta United earned 51.29. Per ASA, Inter Miami finished 20th in goals added differential this season. Atlanta United finished fourth. Are we even talking about an upset? 

Lower seeds are thriving this postseason The Red Bulls have already upset Columbus. Every other Eastern Conference series is going to Game 3. The gap at the top doesn’t seem nearly as wide as we thought it might be. Are we even talking about an upset? 

“Miami” by Will Smith sucks. 

Inter Miami seem insistent on starting Marcelo Weigandt at right back. It’s not clear what he does here. He’s not effective going forward. In fact, he seems to actively make them worse. He’s not all that effective defensively either. Next to him is center back Tomas Aviles. He had a ton of hype around him entering MLS. He’s technically the most expensive center back in MLS history by transfer fee. So far, the 20-year-old has very much looked 20 years old. There’s a long list of center backs in MLS that have simply outperformed him this season. Are we even talking about an upset? 

That right side of Miami’s back line will have to deal with Amador all night. He’ll likely be attacking them as a wingback with Saba Lobjanidze playing opposite him. I wouldn’t expect Atlanta to steer too far away from worked so successfully in Game Two. That means a 5-3-1-1 setup or something similar. I do expect Inter Miami to try and mitigate the numbers advantage that setup produced in midfield though. It might mean adding another midfielder to the mix and switching to a back four. It kind of depends on Busquets. Still, those shifts will likely just lead to more room for Amador to cook. Are we even talking about an upset?

Don’t forget. All Atlanta United really has to do here is get this to penalties. A 50-50 shot at beating Inter Miami is all Atlanta could have ever dreamed about a month ago. It’s a total nightmare for Miami and the pressure will be all on them. That won’t bother the Barca Boys. It might affect the players who aren’t generational talents trying to make a name for themselves. Atlanta is playing with house money and that can lead to a freedom Miami just won’t have. Are we even talking about an upset?

I mean, yeah, duh. Just not as surprising an upset as folks might make it out to be. Atlanta United have a real shot at this. This might end with Inter Miami running away in the end, but there’s no reason to assume they will. There’s plenty of reason to hold out hope for something special. 

But maybe not that special.