Are we sure this is a good idea?

You're snowed in, might as well read about Miguel Almirón.

via Atlanta United

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We’re going to try to approach this objectively. But, also, like, c’mon. It’s Miggy Almirón.

That’s part of what makes this scary though, right? Is this a nostalgia injection into the veins of a fanbase who really didn’t want to see their ticket prices increase for a team that’s been mediocre for the entirety of this decade or is it the best possible signing?

In other terms: Is this just a piece of Star Wars content putting Chewbacca into a scene because Disney’s algorithm knows you people can’t get enough Chewbacca, or is Chewbacca here to wreck?

The best-case scenario is that it’s both. We know one side for sure. I’ve checked with our own algorithm guys and they say that Miggy is going to hit all the right taste clusters. He’ll lead the league in non-Miami jersey sales. Five Stripe Final dot com is going to do numbers on every Miguel piece. This is an unstoppable hydrogen bomb of good PR.

To be clear, I don’t think that’s a bad thing. I think that’s a great thing. Even outside of our own numbers. People want to be deeply invested in this team again. The Inter Miami upset offered a taste of the old days. Now, they’re giving you Miggy to make sure you stay around. Objectively, it’s a fantastic business decision. Subjectively, this is both fantastic news for our website and for the general soccer culture of Atlanta.

But, also, like…is it a good signing?

I want to do an exercise.¹ We all know we’re talking about Miggy Almirón the rest of the way, but let’s pretend that we don’t. Instead of one of the most beloved players in club history, let’s say Atlanta is signing longtime Newcastle United player Sprints MacKenzie [I panicked and I’m bad at names] instead. Does Sprints profile as the kind of club-changing DP signing Atlanta needs?

IS THIS TOO MUCH MONEY???

Arthur Blank woke up this morning on his $180 million yacht², rolled off his mattress made entirely of two dollar bills³, thought about giving Kirk Cousins an extra year on his $45 million a year contract just for fun⁴, used a previously unseen Picasso painting as a plate for his breakfast⁵, saw a text from Garth Lagerwey asking for $10 million, and went ahead and sent that cash over the way you and me Venmo a friend after you split queso at Chipotle as a special treat⁶.

The money doesn’t matter for a DP signing that hits the salary cap the same way no matter what you spend. The money especially doesn’t matter when the team earned roughly $50 million off of transfers in the last year. This has been another episode of “The MLS money does not matter for one of the richest humans in the history of our species.” Thanks for playing everyone.

Do Sprints MacKenzie’s legs still have the juice?

Sprints will turn 31 on February 10. This is not the prime-age player Lagerwey has typically described as ideal for big signings. It is especially not prime age for an attacking player who has historically relied on pace.

That’s intuitive enough to anyone who watches soccer, but there are plenty of studies that back that idea up too. Michael Caley looked at the impact of age on player minutes all the way back in 2013.

Statsbomb’s Colin Trainor followed that up in 2016 with a look at a more specific data set.

And folks like Tom Worville at The Athletic have continued to build on that.

Something you’ll notice in those articles is that they tend to focus on wingers in particular. The reasons why should be obvious. More often than not, they’re players who rely on pace and 1-v-1 ability to find success. Age negatively impacts wingers more than any other position.

So, yeah, Atlanta isn’t signing a prime age player. They’re signing a player who, in most cases, would be considered well over the hill.

That being said, it’s important to consider how much mileage a player has put on his legs. Is 31-year-old Sprints MacKenzie with 22,785 career minutes under his belt all that different than 28-year-old Carlos Vela arriving to LAFC with 23,139? I mean, yeah, maybe. But the bottom line is that age effects aren’t one size fits all. The best player in the world over the last few months has been a 32-year-old winger with over 43,000 minutes under his belt. Mackenzie’s age is more of a general concern. Not a death sentence.

Of course, Sprints isn’t Mo Salah. To be blunt, Mackenzie has had one genuinely productive season at Newcastle and it felt kind of like a fluke. He scored 11 times in the 2022-23 season. Eight of those goals came over a two-month heater from Nov. 1, 2022 to Dec. 26, 2022. He’s only scored five times since then. Before that stretch, he had only scored 10 times over three and a half seasons.

In his best year ever (by a significant margin) in the Premier League, here’s what his FBref chart looked like.

This is good! Not great, but good. The problem is…

It’s tough to tell how much of 2022-23 was a blip. It’s tough to tell how much his first few years in England were impacted by the Mike Ashley of it all. And it’s tough to tell how meaningful any of this is relative to what kind of impact he can have in MLS.

Regardless of his age and form in the Premier League, Newcastle fans to a man will at least tell you he worked his ass off every time he got on the pitch. The work rate hasn’t changed even if the pace has likely dipped. That’s at least encouraging. As is his general injury history.

The nightmare scenario is that he gets here and never sees the field because of recurring soft tissue issues as his age starts to show. But there’s no real reason to believe that will be the case here. He’s not a cyborg, but he’s still a relatively robust player.⁷ And a player who’s had some time to rest and recover before the start of this season. The bad news here is that he’s not a bonafide starter for Newcastle anymore thanks to Jacob Murphy swiping his spot. The good news here though is that he’s not a bonafide starter for Newcastle anymore. After playing 2,000 minutes last season, he’s only played around 160 this season.

Can Sprints do it on a warm night in Austin?

The other way to look at this besides neurotically checking for an AARP card, is that Atlanta is signing a player who appeared in 67 matches over the past two seasons for a Premier League team that finished fourth and seventh in the most competitive Big Five league. How often does that caliber of player come to MLS? And how often do you already have significant proof of concept for that player in MLS?

You can probably count the answer to the first question on one hand if you’re being generous with the criteria. You can only count Sprints as the answer to the second.

To the best of my knowledge, we’ve never seen a player leave MLS after playing at an elite level, start for one of the most expensive teams in the sport, and return. There have been players with more impressive overall resumes. But none that have already ripped the league apart.

I mean…

We won’t see the same version of Mackenzie that we saw in 2018. He’s not going to pick up the ball at the edge of his own 18 and carry it to the other at a full, ostrich-like sprint. He’s not even going to play the same position. He’ll almost certainly be on the right wing while Alexey Miranchuk pulls the strings centrally. But, in theory, a more refined version of Sprints should be able to find similar success. Maybe even greater success.

We know at least that he’ll be a key contributor to Ronny Deila’s press. Again, by all accounts, the work rate hasn’t fizzled away. And he’s always been an excellent defensive player for an attacker.

Still, it’s not entirely clear how this new version of Mackenzie will fare as an attacker. Plus, there might be some initial kinks to work out between him and Miranchuk as to who gets to operate in the right half-space. But considering the gap in skill level between leagues, the proof of concept in MLS and the levels of “actually trying” he should show that similar profile players like Xherdan Shaqiri never did, my gut call is that he should be a monstrous attacking presence the second time around too. No, he’s not a prime age player, but Mackenzie still fits a number of criteria for a traditional Lagerwey signing.

Ok, that’s enough of Sprints. Back to Miguel.

Is it just a PR move?

I think you have to consider who’s in charge of the roster these days. If Darren Eales and Carlos Bocanegra were making the decisions, you might be a bit concerned. But do you really think Chris Henderson and Lagerwey really care that it’s Atlanta United hero Miguel Almirón. The only reason that connection really matters to them is that it opened up an avenue to acquire a profile of player they may not have had access to otherwise. The fact that it’s great for business and morale is just a cherry on top.

Throughout the offseason, Lagerwey has suggested that increasing team speed is a priority. Almirón may not be who he was in 2018, but he still fits the mold. The only box he doesn’t check is age.

The thing is, we’ve seen plenty of high-level MLS players thrive for a little while longer in a lesser league. Plus, I’d imagine the club has a good to great understanding of how much running he can still do and what kind of pace he still has. The biggest concern is health and the chance that he gets pushed off the age cliff a little sooner than the club hopes.

That’s more risk than we’re used to with a Lagerwey signing. Emmanuel Latte Lath is a much more typical target. But, again, we’re talking about a starter for a team that’s been comfortably in the top half of the Premier League the last two years. It’s fair to have concerns. I do. The logic seems sound though.

Plus, also, like, c’mon. It’s Miggy Almirón.

1. That doesn’t mean you should immediately put your keys and Stanley cup on the one available bench in the gym

2. probably

3. probably

4. probably

5. probably

6. probably

7. For reference: Per TransferMarkt, Giorgos Giakoumakis missed roughly 337 days of soccer in his career due to injury before arriving in Atlanta. That included an ACL tear. Mackenzie will have missed around 229 with no long-term injuries.