We’ve been pretty steadfast here the last few weeks in that any analysis worth making the rest of this season is analysis framed around 2025 and beyond. I think that’s still true, but I’m only human. I will allow everyone three whole second of thinking about this team pulling off an upset in the playoffs. Here we go, starting….now……………
Wasn’t that kind of nice? It really feels like a gift in an unenjoyable season that’s come to a screeching halt since Atlanta United got grouped in Leagues Cup. Normally we wouldn’t allow that kind of thing but 1. It felt like everyone needed it and 2. Last week’s win against Charlotte showed how good this team can be when it’s actually executing on basic principles like “passing the ball,” “moving so your teammates can pass you the ball” and “getting close to the goal after all that passing and moving so you can have a chance at shooting the ball.” When Atlanta does those things, they actually have enough talent to do it pretty well.
We’ve seen that manifest twice this season. The first came against Inter Miami. The second came last week.
To be fair, they’ve actually done a lot of those things relatively well this year and it’s translated to their still pretty good actually underlying numbers. I have them eighth in my underlying numbers-based Power Ratings for the entire season and right in between Inter Miami and NYCFC in 14th place over the second half of the season. But it’s only really looked and felt like a Good Team a few times.
It’s obviously a very different team now from the one that beat Messi and friends a few months ago though. And, yeah, beating a good but not elite Charlotte side on the road isn’t as inherently impressive as beating the greatest player of all time and the luckiest team in MLS history. But there’s an argument that this win had a more repeatable process on the way to its outcome.
In the Miami game, Atlanta sat deep and broke at speed when the opportunity presented itself against the Heron’s Sons of Pitches pickup game defensive setup. Against Charlotte, Atlanta went up against the best defensive team in the league this season and ripped them apart with quick decisions, off-ball movement and sharp passing in a balanced back-and-forth game. The finishing didn’t break their way, but they still generated 19 shots and 1.8 xG to Charlotte’s 1.0 xG. The worst defensive team in the league, CF Montréal allows 1.83 xG per game. Atlanta turned Charlotte into Montréal for a night.
Alexsey Miranchuk played a massive role in that. We definitely want to give Jay Fortune his flowers for an outstanding performance of course, but your DPs set the tone. Miranchuk, in his first start, immediately began dictating the game.
Go ahead and
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