A brief update on Atlanta United's underlying numbers

Welp.

Last week, I wrote about how Atlanta United’s underlying numbers, at the very least, hadn’t completely cratered yet. Well, I owe you a quick update.

After back-to-back beatdowns from Philadelphia and Orlando, this year’s team has plummeted to Worst Team In Club History territory. These numbers are obviously going to be more volatile early on in the year due to the smaller data set. A couple of terrible performances can change your status quickly. In short: Atlanta’s numbers have gone from probably the second-worst team in club history to *at least* the second-worst team in club history.

Here’s where their Coefficient of Power Expected (aka COPE)* stands next to the rest of MLS and the rest of Atlanta United’s previous teams.

*Reminder that COPE is a rating that uses underlying numbers like xG, xPts and Goals Added to assess overall team quality. It’s not revolutionary. But it ends up working really well in a lot of cases. You can see the full breakdown here. All numbers included to make COPE are from American Soccer Analysis.

MLS COPE

Yes, Vancouver is that good right now. Yes, Cincy and Portland are overperforming more than any other teams in the league. Yes, Atlanta’s only two wins have come against two of the absolute worst teams in the league. Yes, Miami are frauds. Again.

Atlanta United COPE

It’s not quite 2020. Yet. A red-hot Nashville side coming to Atlanta this weekend could change that.

It’s not good. But how bad does it have to be for Atlanta to start considering serious changes?

Well, I want to remind everyone of what Garth Lagerwey cited last season as his criteria for considering a coaching change.

Discord user Rubber Anchor was kind enough (masochistic enough?) to do the math here.

Nashville just got done putting seven goals on Chicago. Atlanta has to go on the road to face that same Chicago team after that. It’s still a road game in MLS. There are no gimme games for a long, long time.

So.

Uh.

Good morning?